Prometheus Unbound

Ten pretty good reasons to think that gay marriage will survive in California:

1. Though the anti-gay marriage amendment to the California Constitution will be on the ballot in November, conservatives are divided about it. Economic conservatives and libertarians are generally in favor of gay marriage, and religious conservatives oppose it. By contrast, Democrats in California are generally united in their support of gay marriage.
2. The Orange County Register, the most conservative big paper in the state, has came out editorially in favor of gay marriage.
3. Economics favors the pro-gay marriage side. For example, a UCLA Williams Institute study estimates that gay marriage stands to bring 700 million dollars in new revenues into the state. For a discussion of gay marriage that raises this interesting angle to the issue, see this link: http://americasfuture.org/doublethink/2008/06/i-dont-but-i-might-soon/ .
4. Campaign contributions are likely to favor the pro-gay marriage side. From Hollywood, to large gay communities, to Republican business people who are happy to benefit from the positive economics associated with gay marriage, a lot of money is likely to go toward saturating the state with pro-gay marriage messages.
5. Deep pocket Republicans, the ones who finance the Republican party and conservative causes in California, may sit the gay marriage fight out. They may do this as a strategic gesture, feeling that anti-gay passion hurts the Republican brand, and may represent bad politics over the long run, given that, over the next decade or two, gay marriage, as a concept, is likely to become even more culturally accepted than it is today. Conservatives were on the wrong side of the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s, and some conservatives don’t want to be on the wrong side of the civil rights movement of this era.
6. Obama is likely to bring Democrats out to the polls in record numbers in California, and John McCain may not energize an equivelently strong turnout among Republicans. Thus turnout may prove decisive.
7. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger opposes the anti-gay marriage amendment.
8. There are 100,000 gay couples in California, and they have a vital interest in working and contributing money to keep gay marriage legal in California. People fighting for something that directly impacts them are generally more energized than people who are fighting against something that, as a practical matter, may have little or no effect on their day-to-day lives.
9. The big cities in California have substantial gay populations, and they will work hard to get their supporters to the voting booths.
10. Polls seem to be trending toward greater acceptance of gay marriage. Since the late 1970’s, for example, support for gay marriage has doubled.

And here are three pretty good reasons to think gay marriage is toast in California:

1. In 2004, eleven states voted on anti-gay marriage amendments to their state constitutions, and every single one of the amendments won passage.
2. Religious conservatives vote, and if they are sufficiently animated about gay marriage to organize and come out to the polls in November, they may well prevail.
3. Unease about homosexuality, and even disapproval, outright revulsion, and straight-forward bigoty, are still factors in many people’s psyches. More than 50% of the population may feel that gay marriage is simply too large a cultural change to support.

Whatever happens in November, it’s likely to be very close.