TalkingPointsMemo has just put together a startling poll chart comparison that should thrill Obama supporters—and sober McCain backers:
The results are startling. Obama is currently leading in eight swing states that Bush led in just before Election Day 2004, in several cases by big margins, and he’s leading in all of the selected battleground states except for West Virginia. Take a look:
RCP 2004 Result 2004 RCP Now
Colorado Bush +5.2 Bush +4.7 Obama +6.2 Florida Bush +0.6 Bush +5.0 Obama +2.7 Iowa Bush +0.3 Bush +0.7 Obama +11.4 Michigan Kerry +3.5 Kerry +3.4 Obama +17.0 Minnesota Kerry +3.2 Kerry +3.5 Obama +11.3 Missouri Bush +4.2 Bush +7.2 Obama +0.6 Nevada Bush +6.3 Bush +2.6 Obama +3.5 New Hampshire Kerry +1.0 Kerry +1.3 Obama +7.7 New Mexico Bush +1.4 Bush +0.7 Obama +8.4 Ohio Bush +2.1 Bush +2.1 Obama +6.3 Pennsylvania Kerry +0.9 Kerry +2.5 Obama +10.8 West Virginia Bush +8.5 Bush +12.9 McCain +8.0 Wisconsin Bush +0.9 Kerry +0.4 Obama +10.6
Obama is winning by sizable margins in Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin, all states Bush led in four years ago. He’s winning by slimmer margins in Florida, Missouri, and Nevada, also states where Bush led.
Also noteworthy: In every state but one — Wisconsin — the RCP average just before the election was predictive of the final outcome.
And get this: Obama is also competitive, or even winning, in an additional half-dozen states that RCP didn’t even bother calculating the average of four years ago. Obama is winning in Virginia and holds a slight edge in North Carolina; he’s roughly tied with McCain in Indiana; and he’s even within striking distance in Montana and North Dakota.