A Startling Comparison: Know Hope, But Don’t Get Complacent

TalkingPointsMemo has just put together a startling poll chart comparison that should thrill Obama supporters—and sober McCain backers:

We’ve drawn up a chart comparing the Real Clear Politics averages right now in 13 core battleground states with the RCP averages in the same states from right before the 2004 election.

The results are startling. Obama is currently leading in eight swing states that Bush led in just before Election Day 2004, in several cases by big margins, and he’s leading in all of the selected battleground states except for West Virginia. Take a look:

 

 

	RCP 2004	Result 2004	RCP Now
Colorado	Bush +5.2	Bush +4.7	Obama +6.2
Florida	Bush +0.6	Bush +5.0	Obama +2.7
Iowa	Bush +0.3	Bush +0.7	Obama +11.4
Michigan	Kerry +3.5	Kerry +3.4	Obama +17.0
Minnesota	Kerry +3.2	Kerry +3.5	Obama +11.3
Missouri	Bush +4.2	Bush +7.2	Obama +0.6
Nevada	Bush +6.3	Bush +2.6	Obama +3.5
New Hampshire	Kerry +1.0	Kerry +1.3	Obama +7.7
New Mexico	Bush +1.4	Bush +0.7	Obama +8.4
Ohio	Bush +2.1	Bush +2.1	Obama +6.3
Pennsylvania	Kerry +0.9	Kerry +2.5	Obama +10.8
West Virginia	Bush +8.5	Bush +12.9	McCain +8.0
Wisconsin	Bush +0.9	Kerry +0.4	Obama +10.6

Obama is winning by sizable margins in Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin, all states Bush led in four years ago. He’s winning by slimmer margins in Florida, Missouri, and Nevada, also states where Bush led.

Also noteworthy: In every state but one — Wisconsin — the RCP average just before the election was predictive of the final outcome.

And get this: Obama is also competitive, or even winning, in an additional half-dozen states that RCP didn’t even bother calculating the average of four years ago. Obama is winning in Virginia and holds a slight edge in North Carolina; he’s roughly tied with McCain in Indiana; and he’s even within striking distance in Montana and North Dakota.