In the waning hours of this election cycle, FiveThirtyEight.com has just put up its take on Pennsylvania:
What McCain Has Going For Him
John McCain decided at the last minute to try and throw resources at the state in hopes they would see their internals move. Nate’s point remains the right one: hope is not a strategy. In fairness to McCain, there really wasn’t any other big state he could reasonably expect to obtain, so returning here was marginally less hopeless. Pennsylvania is not a very young state, and has more elderly voters than anywhere but Florida. McCain and Palin are visiting the state left and right in the closing days, but Obama isn’t; which tells you all you need to know about how worried the Obama camp is. Obama even did a nostalgia trip to Iowa over a closing appearance in Pennsylvania.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Barack Obama enjoys a massive voter registration edge, where 52% of the state is now registered Democratic, more than Republicans and independents combined. Obama enjoys a massive organization edge, with an unprecedented operation up and running the state for months. It’s a high Catholic voting state, and Joe Biden’s selection as vice-president helps in the working-class Catholic demographic. Not many white evangelicals or Mormon voters hold down the Republican advantage. Obama and Biden have spent plenty of time in the state, and it’s a done deal.
Obama supporters should be highly encouraged by this analysis, especially given FiveThirtyEight’s great reputation in the area of poll watching.