When the midterm elections hit in the Fall of 2010, it’s probably not likely that the unemployment picture will look all that much better than it does today (at least if a Wall Street Journal panel of economists’ forecasting is in the ballpark). Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com analyzes the bad news in detail here.
Money quote:
The Wall Street Journal’s has had its monthly economic forecasting panel attempt to predict what the unemployment rate will look like through the end of 2010. And the results are something that should make the Administration — and Democrats in Congress — a little nervous. The average forecast for the unemployment rate next December — a year-and-a-half from now — is 9.5 percent. That’s no better than where unemployment is today. And only one economist out of 51 ventured a forecast below 7.6, which is what the unemployment rate was when Obama took office in January.
Prometheus Unbound 