Dr. Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Association (IEA) of Paris, thinks so. He was interviewed by Britain’s The Independent concerning Peak Oil, and the news he delivered ain’t good:
[T]he first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an “oil crunch” within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession, he said. In a stark warning to Britain and the other Western powers, Dr Birol said that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil – mostly in the Middle East – would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010. “One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day,” Dr Birol said.
Let’s hope that President Barack Obama can seize this moment for a green energy and energy independence legislative push (with Cap and Trade as a start).
It’s time for the vision thing.