In a recent essay for the New York Times, David Brooks claims that the next half-century in America looks damn sunny:
[T]he fact is, despite all the problems, America’s future is exceedingly bright.
Over the next 40 years, demographers estimate that the U.S. population will surge by an additional 100 million people, to 400 million over all. The population will be enterprising and relatively young. In 2050, only a quarter will be over 60, compared with 31 percent in China and 41 percent in Japan.
In his book, “The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050,” über-geographer Joel Kotkin sketches out how this growth will change the national landscape. Extrapolating from current trends, he describes an archipelago of vibrant suburban town centers, villages and urban cores.
As someone raising two daughters, I want to believe him. And apparently (according to Brooks) horniness and immigration, contra the Tea Partiers, are good things:
The demographic growth is driven partly by fertility. The American fertility rate is 50 percent higher than Russia, Germany or Japan, and much higher than China. Americans born between 1968 and 1979 are more family-oriented than the boomers before them, and are having larger families.
In addition, the U.S. remains a magnet for immigrants. Global attitudes about immigration are diverging, and the U.S. is among the best at assimilating them (while China is exceptionally poor). As a result, half the world’s skilled immigrants come to the U.S. As Kotkin notes, between 1990 and 2005, immigrants started a quarter of the new venture-backed public companies.
Barring a nuclear terror incident or some other global catastrophe—ecological or otherwise—maybe the human future (including America’s) is something to look forward to. And if Brooks is right, then Barack Obama’s presidency is not a fluke, but a harbinger of the country’s progressive direction.