Maybe. The Jerusalem Post reported yesterday that Israel’s president, Shimon Peres,
. . . believes Israel is closer to utilizing the military option in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program than it is to finding a diplomatic solution to the threat. . . . Peres said that Iran could be as close as six months from becoming nuclear-armed and it is Israel’s role to warn the world of the danger.
Six months.
Nervy.
I don’t mean to be cynical, but this might be a time, if you have money, to buy oil stocks. Can you imagine what the price of oil would do after an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities? Presumably, the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz could be kept open only with difficulty (that is, by direct American military intervention).
As for the human toll in a nuclear exchange, it would obviously be grim. If the Iranians acquired some bombs, and actually managed to land one on Israeli soil, we’re talking the complete ruination of Israel—Holocaust 2.0. And nuclear retaliation by Israel from its submarines would, at minimum, mean millions of Iranian deaths.
What a mess. And how likely is it that the nuclear exchange would remain confined to just these two countries, and not draw in allies? Pakistan, for example, has about 100 nuclear bombs, and there’s no telling what India, the United States, Russia, China, and North Korea might do in such an unfolding crisis.
And this appeared in the Jerusalem Post just a few hours ago:
[A senior US official] said that while the US had no intention of striking Iran, it was uncertain that Israel would inform America of its intentions should it choose to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities. Such an operation would be difficult, the official said, because Iran has ‘top notch’ air defenses.
If Israel takes a shot at Iran’s nuclear weapons program over the next six months, let’s hope she doesn’t miss.
Prometheus Unbound 