The following comes from Raymond Learsy at PoHuff, summarizing part of a report in the New York Times from Nov 5, 2011:
[T]he International Atomic Energy Agency Report . . . is expected to spell out that Iran has conducted tests on nuclear trigger devices, conducted abstruse experiments to spark a nuclear reaction, and, of particular concern, wrestled with designs that can miniaturize a nuclear device into small confines. Then the article frighteningly muses on the prospect that if Iran ever slips a bomb to a proxy — “Hezbollah, Hamas or some other terrorist group” –ascertaining a bomb’s return address could take months if it “went off in some American city or in Riyadh or Tel Aviv” before it was ever identified as Iranian, thereby seriously complicating meaningful retaliation.
The New York Times article Learsy is summarizing from is “America’s Deadly Dynamics With Iran.” It’s worth reading directly and in full.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the nervy nuclear Iran quote for the day.
Have a nice rest of the day (if you now can).
Not a very cheerful post.
But hasn’t it always been inevitable that this is where we’d end up?
I think the nuclear club is remarkably small for a technology that’s went commercial (so to speak) almost 75 years ago.
Maybe we need to focus on trying to make it attractive for Iran to be on better terms with the west and the US. Though given our rhetoric and behavior toward Iran for the last 30 years that might be tough.
I’m inclined to agree with you. S. Hussein was a vile character—as when he used chemical weapons against the Kurds—but we might have decided to look the other way and sought avenues for coaxing Iraq toward peaceful trade with the West. Instead, we chose war.
I suppose Iran could have a similar trajectory—one where we work toward peace and trade with it. But, as with Iraq, we might also choose war.
Or we could engage in a new cold war with the Islamic world as a whole, isolating the “ummah” and simply waiting out its inherent contradictions (as we did with the Soviet Union).
But, the world is multifaceted. If the West doesn’t trade with Iran, the Russians and Chinese will.
I don’t know what Israel can tolerate, though. A nuclear Iran is clearly an existential threat to Israel; and Islamic ideology currently incorporates a Nazi-like paranoia and demonization of Jews.
This is a high stakes moment. Israeli leadership will either decide to live with a nuclear armed Iran—or do everything in its power to stop it. That decision will almost certainly occur over the next year or two.