Short war scenarios tend to be delusional, but Benjamin Netanyahu appears to think that he can initiate one against Iran.
The following was reported in the Washington Post yesterday:
A “short-war” scenario assumes five days or so of limited Israeli strikes, followed by a U.N.-brokered cease-fire. The Israelis are said to recognize that damage to the nuclear program might be modest, requiring another strike in a few years.
U.S. officials see two possible ways to dissuade the Israelis from such an attack: Tehran could finally open serious negotiations for a formula to verifiably guarantee that its nuclear program will remain a civilian one; or the United States could step up its covert actions to degrade the program so much that Israelis would decide that military action wasn’t necessary.
U.S. officials don’t think that Netanyahu has made a final decision to attack, and they note that top Israeli intelligence officials remain skeptical of the project. But senior Americans doubt that the Israelis are bluffing.
This looks to be very bad. Neither side is blinking or showing the least concern for the humanity of the other—and if attacked I don’t think the Iranians would be restrained in their response. A formal cease-fire quickly following an Israeli attack is wishful thinking.
The 20th century hasn’t taught us much. Driven by religiously motivated tribalisms, Homo sapiens continue to be a stupid and despicable species. Watch the blood lust rise on all sides, especially among those professing to be pious.
And make no mistake: this will be a religious war. Jews and Christians will be killing Muslims ; Muslims will be killing Jews and Christians. It will be a shameful moment; we’ll all hate ourselves afterward and despair of life; we’ll wonder how it ever came to what it did.
We, truly, are cousins of the badger and blind mole.