Opinion polls indicate that the leftist Syriza Party is on its way to a victory in the upcoming Greek election on June 17th, and that strongly suggests that Greece will be leaving the European Union. Here’s London’s Independent today:
Opinion polls suggest Syriza, a far-left party that refuses to accept the austerity demanded of Greece by its eurozone partners and the IMF, will win the biggest share of the national vote next month. Senior European politicians have warned that, unless the next Greek government signs up to further austerity and economic reforms, Athens’s bailout funds will be cut off. This would prompt a default by Greece on its debt and an exit from the single currency.
The uncertainty over the future of the single currency hit the value of the euro. It fell to a four-month low against the dollar at €1.2730. The euro also slipped to its lowest level against the Japanese Yen since February. […]
Stuart Gulliver, group chief executive of HSBC, said that there was a risk that markets would take a drastic downward lurch even before next month’s Greek election. “It’s absolutely how the eurozone plays out and whether Greece stays in, and/or whether firewalls are high enough to protect Spain and frankly whether markets take things into their own hands before 17 June,” he said.
I’d say this spells the end of Barack Obama’s presidency. November’s election in the United States won’t even be close.