President Obama may not be sunk in November even if he loses 70% of non-college educated white males.
Shifting demographics. This comes from Ronald Brownstein at National Journal:
Demographic change is the silver lining for Obama in these shifting patterns of political support. As recently as 1992, non-college whites cast an absolute 53 [percent] majority of all votes, and minorities just 12 percent, with college whites contributing the remaining 35 percent. By 2008, minorities had increased to 26 percent and non-college whites [had] fallen sharply to 39 percent of the votes, with college whites holding steady at 35 percent, according to the exit polls. (Democrats also have benefited from the shifting internal dynamics of the white population; in 1980, non-college white men outnumbered college-educated white women in the electorate by about three-to-one. By 2008, the two groups cast almost exactly the same share of ballots and in 2012, it’s not inconceivable that the upscale women could equal or exceed the downscale men as a proportion of voters.)
College educated white women are going to decide the November election. It’s why I’m still betting Mitt Romney picks Condoleezza Rice, a smart Stanford professor, as his running mate.