Why Obama Will Win In November

Any time one can remind women that Romney-Ryan are reactionaries against feminism and women’s equality, it helps solidify the women’s vote against them. And I think this election will be decided by women. Also, it matters where the women in question live. Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Colorado are basically where the question of abortion will make a difference in a close race, not among evangelical women in the deep South or Mormon women in Utah.

Both sides have approximately 46 percent of the population decided for them. The race is for that 8 percent of the electorate that has yet to break one way or the other. My guess is that it will go 5% with Obama and 3% with Romney, and it will be because Romney got himself too far out on the right-wing edge without the ability to pivot to the center.

Obama is doing a good job reminding people, especially via Ryan, of just how reactionary and backward the Republican Party is. Against the strong headwind of high unemployment, Obama is running an impressive campaign. He probably shouldn’t be close, but the Republican Party confuses its Southern identity with the larger American identity. This is the last election that Republicans might win going hard right (and hard white). After that, the demographics will begin to overwhelm them and they’ll have to adjust more convincingly to the American center (or end up like the Republican Party in California).

About Santi Tafarella

I teach writing and literature at Antelope Valley College in California.
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