If You Don’t Believe The Polls

In the run-up to the presidential election, if you think the vast majority of public polls have a liberal bias and are not to be trusted, how do you take the pulse of the race?

Simple. Don’t believe the public polls, just believe your eyes. Any day that you see Mitt Romney campaigning in Ohio or Florida, or learn that he’s spending big bucks in those states on advertising, you know that his conservative internal polling has him behind and he’s playing defense. Any day you see him campaigning in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, you know he thinks he can afford to play a bit of offense, or detects an opening.

You don’t need to go where you’re winning.

Mitt Romney has almost no plausible route to 270 electoral votes without winning both Ohio and Florida, so if you see Obama bogging him down in those states, you know Romney’s in trouble. Obama has plausible routes to victory losing one or even both of those states. Romney doesn’t.

And if you see Romney in North Carolina or Arizona at any point in the final stretch, or learn he’s pouring money into those states, you know he’s really in trouble.

So don’t believe the public polls. Don’t believe Rush Limbaugh. Just look.

By the way, the following is being reported at AP today:

Romney also has been forced to spend millions of dollars a week defending himself in North Carolina, a GOP-leaning state that’s more conservative than most of the states that will decide the election.

Polls now show a competitive race there. Democrats boast of having registered 250,000 new voters in the state since April 2011. It’s an eye-popping total in a state that Obama won by just 14,000 votes four years ago. A flood of new voters, presumably a chunk of them Democrats, could help keep that state within Obama’s reach this year.

Also, Romney’s effort to challenge Obama in Democratic-leaning Wisconsin, home state of running mate Paul Ryan, appears to have fizzled. Despite millions of dollars spent on TV in the last few weeks by both sides, polls show Obama with a clear lead in Wisconsin.

Romney’s goal of forcing Obama to defend Michigan – Romney’s native state – and Pennsylvania never materialized.

In other words, if Romney’s own campaign judged itself to be winning, it would be pouring money, not into North Carolina, but into a state like Pennsylvania.

About Santi Tafarella

I teach writing and literature at Antelope Valley College in California.
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5 Responses to If You Don’t Believe The Polls

  1. conservative says:

    This is incredible, you don’t have at least one thread on the criminal attacks by Muslims on our embassies. If I missed it, tell me.

    It’s strange that the same atheistic liberals who always attack American Christians for putting up a Nativity scene in a public park or for mentioning creationism in schools, find excuses for Muslims being fanatical about a short video posted on the internet. In fact, liberals apologize to Muslims and assure them that “not all Americans and Westerners believe that about your religion”.

    None of these concerned politically correct progressives or liberals said anything about “The DaVinci Code” or “The Last Temptation of Christ” or called those books/movies anti-Christian. They called it “art”. When other people burn the Koran or show in a film that Mohamed was a murderer and a fanatic, then the progressives call it “bigotry”.

    This shows that politically correct progressives or liberals, are the most inconsistent and the worst hypocrites in the world.

    Where’s Jared Rodriguez now? he should read this.

    When I posted some news and facts a while back about how criticism of Muslims and Islam in Western Europe is almost a crime, Jared Rodriguez said “no one argues that Islam is superior to Christianity”. That was not the point, which religion is better, although I could easily argue why Christianity is better. The point was, liberal atheists gave Muslims special rights in Western Europe, and are now losing control of the situation. It’s ironic, that liberal atheists, not religious conservatives, contributed to the rise of Islamic sharia and politically correct dictatorship in Europe. This is something that everyone should consider, because it’s serious. It’s going to affect us too.

    • Santi Tafarella says:

      I’ve never made excuses for extremist Muslim intolerance toward free speech. And not all Muslims find their way to violent intolerance. Here, for example, is an example of my own debating with a Muslim while at the UCLA book festival:


      Periodic flare-ups of Islamic street outrage at free speech directed at Muhammad is not going to change until Muslim civilization modernizes itself. This probably means another century of consistent economic growth. (I believe that tolerance for others increases with economic growth.)

      You don’t like the Arab Spring, but in all likelihood democratic governments will, over the long term, make for more stability in those countries and increase economic growth (as it has done in Turkey). Muslims are not opposed to capitalism, and capitalism will moderate Islam over time. To have capitalism and free trade kick in, people have to have hope and cannot be torching embassies or making foreign businessmen feel unsafe.

      It’s better for Libya to be a democratic government than to be under Qaddafi. The flare up there and the death of an ambassador is tragic, but it shouldn’t bring one to the conclusion that the Arab Spring is itself a bad thing for the Arab world. Indeed, a Muslim led democratic government pursuing the perpetrators in cooperation with the United States is a good thing.

      As for Egypt, I’m hoping that the conservative government there will look to Turkey as a model and not Iran.

      As for polls, I notice you ignored the logic of the original post. Surely, you must agree.


      • conservative says:

        You talk about the Arab spring so optimistically (and unrealistically), and you ignore the facts. There is no democratic government in Libya or Egypt or any of those parts of the Islamic world. What are you talking about? And Turkey is not a model for a democracy right now. Come on, where have you been in the past few years?! The government of Turkey and their president are anything but moderate.

        It’s not because they are poor that they are like that, it’s because of their religion and culture.

        You think economic growth is going to make them think critically. You interpret things economically too much, but that’s something to be expected from liberals with a secular and somewhat socialist mindset. The economic growth It’s not going to make them more open minded, unless the West challenges them to rethink certain aspects of their culture and to reform their religion. You can give them as much money as you want, they will still be primitive and intolerant even one hundred years from now. The secular elites in the Western world don’t want to challenge Muslims to rethink their theology. It’s ironic that the secular elites only expect Christians to do that, in spite of the fact that Christians already had a Reformation and have gotten back to the original spirit of the ancient Church, based on the commandments and teachings of Jesus, and not on a political and materialistic interpretation of what the influence of God’s Kingdom in this world ought to be. It’s true that not all Christians understand that, but many of them do. I think Christianity is better off in many ways than it was five or six hundred years ago. There’s no need for “social gospel” and revisionist junk in Christianity.

      • Santi Tafarella says:

        I agree with you that Christianity is better off now than it was 600 years ago. And you can thank the Enlightenment for dragging it, kicking and screaming, into the modern, democratic, capitalist, urban, individualistic, scientific, and technological world.

        Islam is going through a similar process today. The broken wheel squeaks loudest. A richer world is a more peaceful and tolerant world, obviously, and there’s absolutely no reason to think that people will be poorer a century from now and every reason to think that average per capita incomes will be substantially higher than they are today.

        Islam in such a world will trend more toward Turkey than Afghanistan or Pakistan. Turkey is not perfect, but it’s friendly to capitalism and adapting to global trends.

        Your view of the world is Manichean and therefore simplistic. Your word for today: nuance.


      • Santi Tafarella says:


        I also have a book suggestion for you (since you mentioned the Reformation). You might genuinely enjoy it (or at least find it thought-provoking):


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