In the run-up to the presidential election, if you think the vast majority of public polls have a liberal bias and are not to be trusted, how do you take the pulse of the race?
Simple. Don’t believe the public polls, just believe your eyes. Any day that you see Mitt Romney campaigning in Ohio or Florida, or learn that he’s spending big bucks in those states on advertising, you know that his conservative internal polling has him behind and he’s playing defense. Any day you see him campaigning in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, you know he thinks he can afford to play a bit of offense, or detects an opening.
You don’t need to go where you’re winning.
Mitt Romney has almost no plausible route to 270 electoral votes without winning both Ohio and Florida, so if you see Obama bogging him down in those states, you know Romney’s in trouble. Obama has plausible routes to victory losing one or even both of those states. Romney doesn’t.
And if you see Romney in North Carolina or Arizona at any point in the final stretch, or learn he’s pouring money into those states, you know he’s really in trouble.
So don’t believe the public polls. Don’t believe Rush Limbaugh. Just look.
By the way, the following is being reported at AP today:
Romney also has been forced to spend millions of dollars a week defending himself in North Carolina, a GOP-leaning state that’s more conservative than most of the states that will decide the election.
Polls now show a competitive race there. Democrats boast of having registered 250,000 new voters in the state since April 2011. It’s an eye-popping total in a state that Obama won by just 14,000 votes four years ago. A flood of new voters, presumably a chunk of them Democrats, could help keep that state within Obama’s reach this year.
Also, Romney’s effort to challenge Obama in Democratic-leaning Wisconsin, home state of running mate Paul Ryan, appears to have fizzled. Despite millions of dollars spent on TV in the last few weeks by both sides, polls show Obama with a clear lead in Wisconsin.
Romney’s goal of forcing Obama to defend Michigan – Romney’s native state – and Pennsylvania never materialized.
In other words, if Romney’s own campaign judged itself to be winning, it would be pouring money, not into North Carolina, but into a state like Pennsylvania.