A reality check from Nate Silver today:
According to National Journal, Mr. Romney’s campaign has not spent a single dollar on advertising in Pennsylvania since May 1; outside groups that support Mr. Romney ceased their advertising there in August. […]
Mr. Obama’s campaign ceased its advertising expenditures in Pennsylvania in July, no longer having the need to call Mr. Romney’s bluff — and Mr. Romney’s lackluster effort in Pennsylvania has put him in a very defensive Electoral College posture throughout the campaign.
In other words, if Romney wanted to have wiggle room, electoral college-wise, Pennsylvania needed to stay in play, and it hasn’t. And this means that if Romney wants to be Prez, he pretty much needs to win both Ohio and Florida. Obama can afford to lose one of these states (though probably not both).
Here’s what the map looked like in 2008, and nothing appears to have changed. Romney faces the same hurdle of blue-trending states that McCain did.