Americans are, on average, doing pretty well. Demography, therefore, will be decisive–not the jobless number or the debates. And demography is working against Republicans. The demographic shift of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia toward becoming blue states is a megatrend; it’s not something Republicans can simply conjure away. Instead, they’ll have to adapt to it.
Romney is trying, of course, but it’s unlikely he can hold his base and draw enough from the middle to get him to 270 electoral votes.
Here’s a visual that neatly shows why the right’s distopian narrative about America and the world is unlikely to gain traction for removing President Obama from office. Things really are getting better, even relentlessly so, and there’s a part of every person that knows it.
Prometheus Unbound 