Just have a look at where he’s scheduled to campaign on Monday, the day before the election. This is at the New York Times:
Mr. Romney’s campaign officials said they were confident that he would win Florida. But they were not taking chances and scheduled a visit by Mr. Romney to the state on Monday.
They said they were somewhat less certain about Virginia, agreeing with Mr. Obama’s strategists that a jump in polling in the state for Mr. Romney after the first presidential debate had subsided some, though they still predicted a victory there. The Obama campaign has reserved commercial time in the Washington area, Richmond and Roanoke, the monitoring data showed, […]
Mr. Romney was scheduled to make two stops in Virginia on Monday, including one in the northern suburbs, a region that was pivotal to Mr. Obama’s becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate in four decades to win the state.
In other words, Mitt Romney has never been able to secure Florida and Virginia. He’s bogged down in both. He can’t play offense until he’s banked them, and they’re not banked. Because he’s losing.
Understand what being bogged down in Virginia and Florida means. New Hampshire and Virginia represent “Ohio on the East Coast” (17 electoral votes combined). If Obama wins these two states, he doesn’t really need Ohio (with 18 electoral votes) to get to 270 electoral votes. And should Obama win Florida (27 electoral votes), he needs neither Ohio nor Wisconsin (28 electoral votes combined) to get to 270.
Romney, in short, is in a double-bind. He can’t afford to lose either Virginia or Florida and seriously expect to win the election–so he has to campaign in these states. Yet he isn’t likely to win the election if he doesn’t make a strong personal push in other key states in the last days. But that’s being hampered because Obama has him bogged down in Virginia and Florida.
Not good for Mitt Romney. It’s how you know he’s losing (and why Obama may be on his way to winning more than 300 electoral votes).