Can Republicans Get More Than 60% of the White Vote?

Political scientist Ruy Teixeira is skeptical of the “maximize the white vote” strategy that some Republicans are advocating for the next couple of election cycles:

White voters are likely to become less, not more, conservative over time, presenting a huge obstacle to this ever-increasing white Republican vote strategy.

Start with the white working class. These are the most conservative white voters, regularly giving Republicans a 12-14 point larger margin than they receive among white college graduates. But white working class voters are declining precipitously as a share of voters (down from 54 to 36 percent between 1988 and 2012) while white college graduates are increasing their share (from 31 to 36 percent over the same time period). […]

Another daunting obstacle to the GOP dream of an ever larger share of the white vote is the growing Millenial segment of the white electorate. The Millennial generation, as has been widely documented, is the most liberal generation in the overall electorate by a considerable margin. This is also true of white Millennials, who are considerably more progressive than their older counterparts. […] And Millennials are becoming a larger and larger proportion of the white electorate with every passing year. By the time the 2020 election is held, they will be around 37 percent of eligible white voters -close to 2 in 5 white voters.

The writing is on the wall, Nebuchadnezzar. Evolve or die.

About Santi Tafarella

I teach writing and literature at Antelope Valley College in California.
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