I’ve had an insight this morning as to why Donald Trump is likely to lose to Hillary Clinton. The Republican Party, in 2016, has showed itself incapable of yielding to the browning, greening, and feminizing of America. To distract from this fact, it has put forward someone who can yield on two economic, as opposed to cultural, matters: trade and attacking Wall Street.
That’s Donald Trump.
But here’s the problem. To reverse-echo Harry Truman, if you give people a choice between a Democrat and a Democrat, they’ll pick the Democrat every time. Now that Trump is the Republican nominee–a candidate who blends white nationalism with nods to protectionist and paternal socialism–all Hillary has to do is put Bernie Sanders on the ticket with her, and she blunts the two concessions that the Republican Party has made to the electorate this year.
Bernie Sanders is a candidate who blends multicultural nationalism with nods to protectionist and paternal socialism–and Hillary will have little problem playing along.
So after Republicans lose badly with Trump, they’ll be back at square one: how to finally surrender to America’s increasingly multicultural, greening, and feminist identity. After 2016, nostalgia politics directed full throttle at white nationalists will be a thing of the past–at least in national elections.
Trump therefore isn’t just highlighting the weaknesses, contradictions, and vulnerabilities within the Democratic Party this year, but its strengths. He’s showing us that the Democrats are, in fact, better positioned to ride America’s demographic and cultural waves to ever more decisive national electoral victories than are Republicans.
Thus Trump is symptom, not cure. He’s showing Republicans that they are actually in the unenviable role of playing political catch up with the Democrats. He’s not showing them how to actually catch up. Building walls won’t work.
So what we’re witnessing is the Californication of our national elections. Democrats have no problem thriving in California’s demographic environment. The majority of Californians like California’s demographic diversity–and 2016 will show that the majority of Americans like–and want to protect—the country’s increasing demographic diversity as a whole. It makes us distinctive among the nations.
The majority also want Wall Street held accountable. And green policies put in place. And feminism to flourish. They want the one percenters’ feet held to the fire–and all these issues work well for Democrats.
So the Democrats are in a better position to surf the electoral wave this year than are Republicans–and it’s why, if Hillary picks Bernie for VP (or someone like Bernie), she’s almost certainly going to win, and perhaps win big.
Between now and the election, the far right will try to muddy this picture, pushing isolated polls suggesting a close race, but the actual signals in the noise are two: (1) the Republican Party has failed to adjust to the browning, greening, and feminizing of America; and (2) it has put forth an alternative gambit for running in this year’s election cycle that is grounded in issues that favor Democrats: opposing free trade and the Wall Street one percenters.
A simple example: Trump (maybe) wants to raise the national minimum wage a bit. Bernie calls for $15 an hour. Hillary is not far behind. She says she’d sign such a wage increase if it made it through Congress. Who wins this argument if the electorate’s mood is to help the little guy? If you give people the choice between a Democrat and Democrat,…