Tag Archives: polls

If You Don’t Believe The Polls

In the run-up to the presidential election, if you think the vast majority of public polls have a liberal bias and are not to be trusted, how do you take the pulse of the race? Simple. Don’t believe the public … Continue reading

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After 47% Comment, Romney Collapses in Polls

This is at the New York Times today: Mr. Romney’s comments about the “47 percent” of Americans seemed to be undercutting him with other working-class voters here [in Ohio]. “This last thing, where he was going on about the 47 … Continue reading

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Turnout Assumptions: Why Does Rasmussen Show Better Numbers for Romney Than Other Polls?

Ever wonder why Rasmussen so consistently skews toward a Romney victory in its election projections? Dick Morris explains: Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and … Continue reading

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How many Americans call themselves either atheist or agnostic?

Actually, the number—at least according to a Pew poll of about 35,000 Americans from three years ago—is pretty small: just 4% (1 out of every 20 Americans). The religiously unaffiliated total is 16.1%, but most of the unaffiliated nevertheless profess to be believers … Continue reading

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Obama’s Key to Electoral Success: 5 States in ONE of These 7 Combinations

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, if the election is not a blowout, these are the FIVE states to watch on election night: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada: The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows: 1. Win Pennsylvania … Continue reading

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THE NEEDLE JOHN McCAIN MUST THREAD: Why Is McCain Spending So Much Time in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania?

John McCain isn’t investing heavy in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania because he’s polling close in those states—but because they’re his only reasonable route to 270 electoral votes. Chuck Todd explains:

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“The largest lead among likely voters to date”: Gallup Polling Today, with Just 48 Hours to Go, Shows Obama AHEAD by 10 POINTS!

Read about it at Gallup here. Hurricane Barack may be reaching maximal strength just as the election arrives. Can we change the course of this country away from Bushism and anti-intellectual religious authoritarian Palinism? Yes we can!

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McCain’s Big Gamble of Time and Resources Not Paying Off?: Pennsylvania Polls Seem to Show Obama’s Numbers Holding Steady

Despite John McCain and Sarah Palin’s extensive time in Pennsylvania this week, they do not appear to be pulling Obama’s numbers down. In other words, McCain’s gamble to devote a lot of time and money to the state is not … Continue reading

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Closing Times of the Polls on Election Night, State by State

SwingStateProject has compiled the closing times of the polls on election night. First done will be Indiana: Time State Republican-Held Democratic-Held 6:00 PM 7:00 PM Indiana (E.) Indiana (W.) IN-03, IN-04, IN-Gov IN-09, IN-House 6:00 PM 7:00 PM Kentucky (E.) Kentucky … Continue reading

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With Five Days to the Election, the Polls Look Good for Obama

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Countdown to Obamageddon: 9 Days to Go and Obama’s Polling Numbers Continue to Look Strong

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

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A New “Big Ten” Poll Shows Sarah Palin Sinking John McCain in the Midwest. Obama Leads Now in ALL the “Big Ten” States

Money quote from the poll report at BigTenPoll.org: The voters’ views of Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin have dimmed in the month since the first Big Ten poll. In September, half of voters in the national poll held a … Continue reading

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Reality Check: Public Polling Data Released Today Still Has Obama in the Lead in Two Key States—Florida and North Carolina

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com for Oct. 18, 2008 Notice that the national polls have Obama in a 4-7 point national lead, and in two key states that McCain must win (Florida and North Carolina), he’s down by 2-4%. Also notice that two states … Continue reading

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Bad News for John McCain: CBS News Poll of Uncommitted Voters Says He Lost the Third Debate Badly

A CBS News poll of uncommitted voters says Obama won debate #3 handily: As in the previous debates, CBS News and Knowledge Networks have conducted a nationally representative poll of uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight’s presidential debate. … Continue reading

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The Check Please. The Reality Check.

Chart Source: FiveThirtyEight.com Nationally, McCain is trailing by about 8 percentage points with three weeks to go. This means that he needs to make up, on average, about 3 points a week to catch and surpass Obama. McCain better have … Continue reading

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Reality Check: McCain Has His Work Seriously Cut Out for Him. And Because of His Age, Will McCain Really Have the Energy, Mental Alertness, and Physical Stamina to Turn This Map Around?

Electoral College: Obama 329, McCain 169 Toss-up 40 (270 to win) National popular vote: Obama 50.0%–42.0% McCain (Dark Blue (280): Obama +7.0% or more Lean Blue (49): Obama +2.6%-+6.9% White / Toss-up (40): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5% Lean Red … Continue reading

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Countdown to Obamageddon!: 25 Days Left, and Obama Has His BEST Polling Day Yet. At This Rate, Obama May Even Win Georgia

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com November 4, 2008 may prove to be “Obamageddon” for the Fox News right. Sean Hannity must be squirming. Know hope. Go Obama!

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More Great Polling Numbers for Obama Today. Even West Virginia Looks Like It Could Go Obama

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

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What’s the Matter with Oklahoma? New Polls Show McCain Trouncing Obama—in Oklahoma! (But Nowhere Else.)

Latest polling numbers compiled at FiveThirtyEight.com. Yet another great polling day for Obama:

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October 7, 2008: Another Strong Polling Day for Obama-Biden. Things Look Especially Good in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire. Obama-Biden May Even Be Tied with McCain-Palin in Indiana

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com.

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